If you're a United Airlines pilot, your phone has probably already blown up about this.
SpaceX filed for its initial public offering in May 2026, listing on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX. Analysts are calling it the largest IPO in history — potentially valued at over $1 trillion. And given that we fly for a living and have a natural affinity for anything aerospace-related, it's one of the most common questions we're getting from United pilots right now.
So here's our honest take.
The SpaceX Numbers — What You're Actually Buying
SpaceX is a legitimate business. In 2025, the company generated $18.7 billion in revenue — driven primarily by Starlink and government launch contracts. Reusable rockets, satellite internet, Starship development — these are real accomplishments.
But here's what the headlines aren't leading with: SpaceX lost $4.9 billion in 2025. The company is burning cash aggressively while building out its infrastructure.
At a $1 trillion valuation, you're paying roughly 53 times revenue for a company with no earnings. For reference, Apple — one of the most profitable businesses in history — trades around 8x revenue. Amazon at its most aggressive growth phase traded around 3x.
There's also a governance structure worth understanding: SpaceX is designed so that Elon Musk cannot be removed as CEO, regardless of what shareholders want. A Harvard Law professor reviewed the structure and called it "not common."
None of this means SpaceX will fail. It means you're being asked to pay a historically high price, with no earnings, and limited shareholder control.
What 50 Years of IPO Research Actually Shows
At United Wealth Management, we manage investments for United Airlines pilots using an evidence-based, academic approach — and the evidence on IPO investing is about as clear as it gets in finance.
Professor Jay Ritter at the University of Florida has tracked every U.S. IPO since 1975. His research, replicated dozens of times across global markets and time periods, shows a consistent pattern:
- IPOs underperform comparable companies by 20–30% over five years on a cumulative basis
- The "first-day pop" — where shares jump 15–20% on opening day — almost always goes to institutional investors who received shares at the offer price, not retail buyers
- IPOs are timed by insiders and investment banks to sell at moments of peak optimism — you are on the other side of that trade
There are famous exceptions — Amazon and Google went public and became generational winners. But those names are famous precisely because they're outliers. For every Amazon, there are hundreds of companies that traded below their IPO price within three years.
Our Approach for United Pilot PRAP and Retirement Accounts
United Wealth Management manages investments exclusively for United Airlines pilots — including PRAP/PCRA accounts at Schwab, IRAs, and taxable brokerage accounts. Our investment strategy is built on the work of Nobel laureate-backed academic research and implemented exclusively through Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA).
DFA does not participate in IPOs — by design. Their philosophy, and ours, is that markets are broadly efficient and that systematic exposure to well-documented factors of return (market, size, value, profitability) produces better long-term outcomes than chasing individual stories.
For United pilot PRAP planning, this matters. The PCRA is where the majority of your investable wealth sits. Speculating in individual IPOs — especially one priced at 53x revenue — runs directly counter to a disciplined retirement income strategy.
Here's something most pilots don't realize: if SpaceX succeeds and grows into its valuation, it will eventually be included in the major indexes and DFA's portfolios. You don't need to buy at IPO to participate in the long-term upside. The market will bring SpaceX to you — after the speculation has faded and the fundamentals are clearer.
We're Not Predicting Failure — We're Staying Disciplined
To be clear: we are not saying SpaceX won't go to the moon. It might. This could turn out to be the best investment of the decade. We genuinely don't know — and neither does anyone else, including the investment banks underwriting this deal.
That's exactly the point.
We don't make investment decisions based on exciting stories, media momentum, or the fear of missing out. We make them based on evidence, time horizon, and what your financial plan actually requires. For a United Airlines pilot managing a PRAP account with a retirement 10 to 20 years out, buying a $1 trillion money-losing company at IPO is a speculation, not an investment.
Our job — the one we've built our entire firm around — is to keep United pilots on their financial plan when the market makes it tempting to do otherwise. That's true when markets are crashing and it's true when something this exciting comes along.
Questions? We Work Exclusively with United Pilots.
If you're a United Airlines pilot and you want a second opinion on your PRAP strategy, your retirement income plan, or just want to talk through whether SpaceX belongs in your personal portfolio outside of your managed accounts — we're here for that conversation.
United Wealth Management is a fee-only fiduciary RIA built exclusively for United Airlines pilots. Dan Lohmar, Alan Bewley, and Trey Zinsser are all active United line pilots. We understand the contract, the PRAP structure, the PCRA, the PBGC, RHA elections, and everything else that makes United pilot financial planning different from everyone else's.
Disclaimers:
- This discussion of SpaceX is for informational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security.
- All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change.
- - Information presented is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein. This information for informational purposes only and should not be considered as personal investment, tax or legal advice.
- - Past performance may not be indicative of future results. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. Economic factors, market conditions, and investment strategies will affect the performance of any portfolio and there are no assurances that it will match or outperform any particular benchmark.
- - Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no
assurance that any specific investment will either be suitable or profitable for a client's investment portfolio.
- - Information in this video is directed toward US residents only. United Wealth Management, LLC is registered as an investment adviser in with the SEC.
- -Advisory services offered through United Wealth Management, LLC, an SEC registered investment adviser. United Wealth Management, LLC only transacts business in states where it is properly notice filed or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements.